Turkey very recently signed a document whereby it acknowledges the membership of Cyprus as member of the Customs Union, which means in effect that Turkey accepts Cyprus as a member of the EU. Along with that document Turkey has added a rider that this action does not mean recognition of the state of Cyprus. This explanation does not sound convincing because Turkey had pledged that she would sign the document. Furthermore, in front of Turkey the very important date is 3 October, when she is due to start her long awaited negotiations with the 25-member EU for her own full membership. Nobody has any doubt that the negotiations are going to be rocky and will last anywhere near a dozen years.

Fortunately for Turkey the current President of EU is Great Britain, who is more than helpful. Until now Britain is the odd man out within the EU, where France and Germany are in the driver's seat. Britain needs an ally and Turkey, with her nearly 72 million population will be the second most populous member after Germany. Turkey has worked hard to persuade leaders of the EU to swing in her favour. Both President Jacques Chirac of France and Gerhard Schroeder of Germany are sympathetic towards Turkish Prime Minister Tayiip Erdogan, but their own political future is in doubt as elections are due in Germany this autumn and he is seriously challenged by a German lady politician Angela Markel. Nicholas Sharkozy, the Home Minister of France has mounted a shrill campaign against Chirac. Both oppose full membership of Turkey and suggest instead associate membership. Turkey, after half a century of effort for membership, has naturally stated that it is either full membership or nothing.

Turkish action regarding recognition of Cyprus has been received by the Government of Cyprus with a negative position although they have been careful not to reject it altogether. The patron of Cyprus, Greece has taken an identical position. It may be recalled that the present apparent impasse is the outcome of the referendums held in North Cyprus, inhabited by Turkish Cypriots, and South Cyprus inhabited by Greek Cypriots according to a peace plan proposed last year by Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the UN. Whereas Turkish Cypriots voted in favour of the plan, which meant United Cyprus, the Greek Cypriots rejected the plan. The situation became further confused when, on the basis of an earlier decision, the EU made Cyprus (effectively the southern part) a full member of the EU. Thus EU broke its own rule by accepting as member, which, to say the least, was a mine field of disputed territory. This opened the door to diplomatic maneuverings of all sorts.

It is evident that between now and 3 October diplomatic temperature will continue to mount between the divided island of Cyprus and their patrons -- Turkey and Greece. Within the EU diplomatic activity surrounding membership of Turkey is bound to increase. The tussle is going to be between Turkey, a candidate for membership of EU and many members of the EU, and principally Greece and Cyprus, who technically have the power to block the membership aspirations of Turkey.

The date of 3 October was set by the EU Summit and there can be no going back. The Helsinki Summit a few years ago had accepted Turkey's membership in principle. It is difficult to see how those decisions can be set aside. Thus the proposal for Associate membership appears somewhat fanciful. On the other hand technically any member can veto any decision of the EU. Although this is on paper in reality the heavy weight within the EU like France and Germany have a preponderant voice.

Turkey made some major effort to bolster her chances for membership. Thus Prime Minister Erdogan has established solid friendship with Italian Premier Sylviano Berlusconi. In a general way Turkey has garnered support among the Mediterranean countries of the EU. Britain's support comes at a crucial time when negotiations are due to begin on 3 October.

EU is in an expansionist frame of mind. Her latest was addition of 10 members, mostly from Eastern Europe and the number rose to 25 from 15. Turkish membership along with two near neighbours have been accepted in principle. Of all the new members, Turkey raises numerous emotions among Europeans, not all favourable. The most important objection is of course that so far the EU has remained a Christian Club and Turkey has a population which is wholly Muslim. The Ottoman Empire of Turkey has ruled over large parts of Europe. We saw traces of anti-Turkish hatred in the behaviour of the Serbs towards their own nationals in Bosnia and Kosovo in the late nineties.

The die for Turkish membership of the EU has been cast. It is an irreversible process. For more than half a century the entire Turkish nation has united totally for joining the EU. The EU has as good as accepted Turkey as the new entrant within the Christian Club.

It would be foolhardy to bet that the going from now on between Turkey and the EU is going to be smooth. If anything many more shrill voices will rise. Little Cyprus with a tiny population of 600,000 will try to get all that she can from large Turkey. The diplomatic pirouette will be tremendously exciting.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.