Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 420 Mon. August 01, 2005  
   
Point-Counterpoint


Kyrgyzstan: What does the future hold?


The first step towards democracy was successfully accomplished in Kyrgyzstan on July 10, as promised by the new leadership, and in the eyes of 800 or so international observers, they were by and large free and fair. And if election process were an end in itself, one would be relieved by the outcome. But if election is a means not an end in itself, then one would have to look further.

After all, the Kyrgyz nation has given so much sacrifices in life, liberty and property during the Soviet rule and then under the despotism of Askar Akayev, not solely for the purpose of having a grandiose electoral exercise costing millions of dollars in a nation where 40 percent live well below the poverty line. All they wished was to have a say in governance, rule of law, an end to rampant corruption, and a few glimmers of hope for a decent standard of life. Whether the Bakiev-Kulov duo will be able to do it, is the million dollar question.

To begin with, even the 369 OSCE observers have not rated the elections as excellent or perfect but have given varied ratings from "good" to "very good." They have agreed that the campaign was largely fair and on a level playing field. No harassment for non-official candidates was carried out, although the number of candidates was reduced from 21 at the beginning of the hustings to only six on election day, as one after another candidate was knocked out on technicalities.

The two main candidates, Kurmanbek Bakiev and his arch rival Felix Kulov, made an alliance that if the former became President, the latter would be nominated the Prime Minister, so effectively the electoral exercise was reduced to a formality. After the fifteen stifling years of Akayev's rule, Bakiev's interim administration was not at all unpopular and the five remaining presidential contenders were political nobodies. This partly explains the Bakiev landslide of 89 percent of the poplar vote -- a figure reminiscent of the Communist era farcical poll results.

Now, whether the relative fairness in elections, by Central Asian standards, not European ones, owed to a genuine commitment to democracy or to the fact that their victory was a foregone conclusion, remains to be seen by subsequent conduct. After all, the same Bakiev as Prime Minister and the same Kulov as Security Minister had been responsible for killing of unarmed civilians in Aksy (2002) and elsewhere, as loyal lieutenants of a ousted dictator.

The electorate of 2.5 million voted all across the country as well as at polling stations in 11 Russian cities and 28 Kyrgyz embassies. The presidential hopefuls had to be Kyrgyz nationals, had to pass a test in Kyrgyz language, deposit $2,500 as security, and gather 50,000 signatures from supporters to be fielded as candidates. The OSCE noted some problem with these conditions and had also expressed concern at some isolated incidents of ballot box stuffing, problems during counting and, at some places, implausible sudden rise in turnout figures, but welcomed Bakiev and Kulov's decision to resign from their posts temporarily before elections.

The promise of a fair and corruption-free democracy made by Bakiev notwithstanding, it has been noticed all over the world that the leaders with the best of intentions tend to concentrate power unless there are checks and balances within the system, including an active and vibrant citizenry. The Kyrgyz nation's courtship with democracy is only weeks old and a proper democratic culture takes time to evolve.

In the meantime, the world community should try to help Kyrgyzstan in embracing a sustained democracy, lest it falls within the Central Asian political culture of Stalinist governance, and the fate of Kyrgyz nation gets sealed for another how many decades.

The first steps to be taken towards constitutional reforms are strengthening the Supreme Court, constitutional changes to transfer many powers to the office of the Prime Minister to create a balance between the two apex offices of the state, and new parliamentary elections, as this March's parliamentary elections were no more than a joke.

The new President has a number of challenges before him; one, the fate of the US military bases, that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is pressuring Bakiev to say good-bye to; two, the fate of hundreds of refugees of Andijan massacre from neighbouring Uzbekistan, who the UN wants Kyrgyzstan to protect on humanitarian grounds (Uzbek tyrant Karimov wants them back for duck-shooting practice, threatening Kyrgyzstan with cutting off gas supplies otherwise. According to unconfirmed reports, the four who were handed over to Uzbekistan by the interim administration last month have painfully died in acid baths); three, tackling with the poverty where almost half the people cannot afford two meals a day; and four, grappling with all-pervasive corruption.

True, there is no Aladdin's Lamp with Bakiev and Kulov, yet they have before them a well-trodden track of democracy and the rule of law, which if they opt for, can lead to a better tomorrow.

The Kyrgyz nation is in a state of flux and transition, and greater tact and statesmanship is called for at the hour. The supporters of losing parliamentary candidates of the March electoral farce that had instigated the chain of events leading to the "tulip revolution," occupied the Supreme Court building for a month, the election related violence claimed many lives, a leading politician was recently murdered in broad daylight in Bishkek, and the security forces had to use force to evict thousands of protestors occupying the main governmental building in the capital -- all this hints at a breakdown of stability.

But these pangs are not unusual during such transitional phases after long and dark spells of dictatorship. A strong will on the part of the leadership and the nation will make these shreds of turmoil a mere passing reference in the history textbooks.

Tnew President is a combo of an economist, an electrical engineer, and a soldier. Born on August 1, 1949 in Teyyit village, near the Southern city of Jalalabad, he got higher education in engineering from Russia , where he met his future wife at the Technical Institute, before joining the army in 1972. He came back in 1979, along with his wife and two sons, to resettle in Kyrgyzstan. He joined politics in 1990 and became Governor of Jalalabad in 1992, and held many positions until he became the Prime Minister in 2001, and leading opposition figure the following year, when he resigned after falling out with President Akayev.

How long can Bakiev remain a bedfellow with erstwhile foe, Felix Kulov is a moot point. In the Central Asian political culture, will he be able long to keep his sons, Marat, Deputy Chief of National Security, and Maksim, a private businessman, from becoming shadow presidents? A combination of fate and circumstances has placed onerous responsibilities on his shoulders.

The writer is an Oxford-published author and a widely read analyst on politics, law, and governance in the Muslim world.