The clamor on the Nobel laureate's 60th birthday this month to demand an end to her house arrest made little impact in Yangon, which has ignored calls by heads of state, ministers, other Nobel prize winners and human rights activists across the world that she be released.

Analysts say it is likely the regime has already decided she will not be freed before next year.

The generals would first want to re-convene the National Convent-ion drafting a new constitution and have it approved in a referendum, the result of which is a foregone conclusion.

Only then would they feel comfortable to free the popular opposition leader.

Another thorny issue illustrates that the generals listen to no one: the junta's frustrating delay in finalizing whether it will assume the rotating chairmanship of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The United States and the European Union have threatened to boycott their annual security meetings and other forums with ASEAN if Myanmar heads the regional bloc in 2006, after Malaysia in an alphabetical rotation.

ASEAN itself is divided over the issue. Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos support Myanmar, while countries like Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand have made it understood to Yangon they would prefer it relinquished the role.

Within ASEAN, "There is a sense of exasperation," a Yangon-based analyst said.

But Myanmar does not want to let go and has already begun preparations, extending the city's airport, resuming downtown construction and beautifying several parks.

"They are under serious pressure. They desperately want it, it is important for their credibility," he told AFP.

The decision, he said, rests solely with Senior General Than Shwe, the country's 72-year-old supreme leader.