Within two days, desperate President Chirac reshuffled his cabinet and appointed 51-year old intellectual Dominique de Villepan as the Prime Minister, replacing the unpopular Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin. During the Iraq's war, Villepan came into prominence as French Foreign Minister for his impassioned opposition to the war, and for his articulation of the reasons for opposing the war. He was Interior Minister prior to becoming Prime Minister. He has never been elected to a significant political office and was a former diplomat. He is a smooth insider within the administration. He has penchant for writing poetry and wrote a biography of Napoleon.

One of the immediate implications of the rejection by French people is that British Prime Minister Tony Blair has now refused to commit himself to a referendum in Britain, as proposed earlier. Furthermore the chaos caused by the rejection put Blair, who takes up the EU Presidency in July, in a hot seat, particular when his authority in Britain has been much diminished after the British election in early May.

Possible reasons
The question is why did the French people say emphatically "no" to the EU Treaty? There are many possible reasons and some of them deserve mention.

First, when the European Union was expanded to 25 European countries ( embracing former Communist Eastern European nations), people of founding nations of European Union were not consulted and were not given the opportunity to voice their views on the proposed expansion. Many of the French people did not approve the large-scale expansion of the European Union from 15 to 25 in 2004 within such a short period. The elected leaders assumed that they had the authority to integrate weaker economies of Eastern Europe with the stronger economies of nations of the European Union. Now the people are asserting their right to give "bloody nose" to their leaders for their decision.

Second, free-market economy, espoused by the Brussels politicians, has been viewed by many French people as going too far without social protection. Unemployment is very high in France (10.2%) and this has been cited as a key factor by 46 per cent of no voters, according to a TNS-Sofres poll for Le Monde.

Furthermore many people believe that outlets of many French companies have been shifting to former Eastern European countries where cheap labour is abundantly available. The agricultural subsidy given to the newly admitted countries has hurt the French farmers. Mobility of cheap labour from the newly member-countries to France has been a threat to their employment

Third, basically it is the weak economy in France that has led people to reject the EU Treaty. The rejection of the Treaty has sent a message to the Brussels politicians that they stop expansion of the European Union to include Bulgaria and Romania by 2007 when the overall economy in France, Germany and Italy are weak.

Fourth, there is a view that rejection is largely an anti-Muslim vote, particularly in France. Furthermore many French people think that if Turkey with 80 million population (99% are Muslims) joins the European Union, it will be the largest populous country after Germany and will change the Christian character of the Union. . The rejection has provided a clear signal not to embrace Turkey within the fold of the European Union.

Fifth, the no vote appears to be an emphatic rejection of policies of the Chirac administration. A Tribune newspaper poll revealed the huge referendum divide between the haves and have-nots in France, with two-thirds of voters earning 1000 euros ($1640 a month) voting no, compared with almost three-quarters of their wealthier compatriots who votes yes. The former French Prime Minister Raffarin earned his unpopularity after he wound back the 35-hour week and tried in vain to cancel one of France's record number of annual public holidays -- Pentacost Monday.

Finally, the no vote is a rejection of the US's influence in Brussels to integrate Western Europe with former Communist countries, such as Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. The strategy of the US is to weaken Russia's influence in the former Communist countries and many of the newly members of the European Union have enthusiastically supported the Iraqi war. That led to US Defence Secretary Rumsfeld refer to France and Germany who opposed the war as "old Europe", much to annoyance of the people of France and Germany.

Conclusion
The no vote has been a political "tsunami" for the enlarged European Union. Liberal economic policies with free-market economy without "human face" have brought soaring unemployment and inflation. The introduction of euros had increased the prices of almost every consumer item. The have-nots in France did not gain from the expansion of the European Union.

It seems that European leaders including the French President have moved much ahead of people in conjuring up the political and economic edifice of the European Union. Conventional wisdom holds that leaders must think ahead of people but only so far ahead that the shift in opinion among people required is achievable. It seems that this aspect of political wisdom has been ignored in the past.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.