Irreversible peace process or false dawn?
Brig Gen Shahedul Anam Khan ndc, psc (Retd)
Whatever may be the compulsions of the two countries to climb down from their long-held positions in order to seek peace on a permanent basis, it augurs well for South Asia that the two long-time foes have now seen fit to not be bogged down by the baggage of history in their negotiations. The articulation of intent by India and Pakistan so clearly voiced in the statement that "peace is irreversible," demonstrates the commitment of the leaders of the two countries to peace, and perhaps also an acknowledgement that discretion is the better part of valour. What is significant is the fact that both sides have eschewed war as an option for resolving bilateral problems, particularly the problem of Kashmir. What is also happily missing is the rhetoric in their statements and the rigidity in their respective stances. Of even more significance is the fact that while neither has totally moved away from their original position on the core issue of Kashmir there is an apperception of the other side's view. While all sorts of motives have been attributed to President Musharraf for the change in his stance towards the entire gamut of peace, survival and national interest must have been upper-most in his mind in taking a position that many see as a climb down on his part. Be that as it may, if the prospect of peace between the two countries is enhanced by the changed position that displays an attitude of flexibility and accommodation, then neither the compulsions nor the motivations but the final outcome is what should matter. The fact that both have relented from their respective hard stands -- "only Kashmir" for Pakistan and "all issues" for India -- as a precondition for a dialogue, and the attitudinal change of the two South Asian rivals demonstrate the fact that neither have allowed their hearts to get the better of their heads this time. While we know enough not to pin too high a hope on strategic developments between India and Pakistan, one cannot but be affected by a feeling of optimism that stems from the very palpable change in stance of the two countries towards bilateral issues. It is more evident in the case of Pakistan, where President Musharraf's recent statements suggest a departure from its earlier position on Kashmir. The Pakistan President made some very substantial remarks on Kashmir while addressing South Asian parliamentarians on May 20 in Islamabad. However, it is not for the first time that President Musharraf has come out with a formula for solving the Kashmir dispute. But this time he has chosen to draw a time-line for it, suggesting that the Kashmir solution, "should be done within the tenures of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and myself," No wonder India feels that the Musharraf is moving too fast for its comfort. And it is not for the first time that the Indians may have been caught off guard. President Musharraf has even taken some of his countrymen by surprise; reportedly, the liberals in Pakistan who are also protagonists of an equitable resolution of Kashmir are perplexed at his pronouncements. Pakistan appears to have accepted the fact that for India any redrawing of the map or exchange of territories is non-negotiable, but Musharraf would like to see that as a point of take-off for a solution rather than a stumbling block. What must come as very soothing to India is the fact that Musharraf has accepted India's internal political compulsion regarding Kashmir, which India regards as a symbol of its secularism, that a Muslim majority "state" can survive in a Hindu majority country. Musharraf's acknowledgement of India's compulsions is amply expressed in his recent statement, "We do understand India's sensitivity over their secular credentials and therefore it [the solution to Kashmir] cannot be, maybe, on a religious basis. So therefore it needs to be on regional basis, on a peoples basis." This is virtual repudiation of a previous position in which the President had said Kashmir should be divided along religious lines. Also gone is the demand for the independence of Kashmir; that has now been replaced by President Musharraf's suggestion that they should be granted maximum self-governance, in line with their wishes. (Pakistan has denied that President Musharraf had made any remarks on autonomy or semi-autonomy for any part of Kashmir, almost ten days after his statement was published). Analysts are still trying to cull the significance of his statement regarding the Line of Control, about which he said, "A lasting solution lay in rendering boundaries irrelevant." Implied also in the Pakistan President's remarks is his willingness to call off the insurgents provided it was matched by the withdrawal of Indian forces from the valley. His suggestions to demilitarise Kashmir have also been echoed and welcomed by the Indian Prime Minister who, according to reports, "praised Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's proposal to demilitarise a part of Kashmir and give it autonomy, saying these proposals could be considered if the India-Pakistan dialogue remained on track." However, while in India there is a bi-partisan consensus on the approach to the peace process, there appears to be not too many takers in Pakistan of the President's proposal; there are various stake-holders who feel that the Pakistan President has offered such unilateral concession in respect of Kashmir which has caused an impression of Pakistan's undue haste under external pressure to solve the Kashmir problem. It would be unrealistic to expect a problem that has resisted resolution for the last fifty-seven years to be resolved overnight. President Musharraf's peace formulations notwithstanding, there are home constituencies whose unease at his fast-track approach he must allay. It is also imperative that the third party in the dispute, i.e. the Kashmiris, be allowed full participation in any dialogue on their homeland. Along with the Kashmiris let us also hope that the peace process is indeed irreversible. As one eminent Indian journalist put it, "the two warring neighbours are headed towards a new dawn." Let's hope it is not a false dawn that meets them. The author is Editor, Defence and Strategic Affairs, The Daily Star.
|