Sources tell me to expect early elections, that the prime minister might dissolve parliament as soon as this October, meaning that the elections would be held in early 2006, almost an entire year ahead of schedule.

Such a suggestion does make a lot of sense. The AL and much of the rest of the opposition has been arguing continually for early elections, and it would turn the tables on them nicely to give them exactly what they are asking for.

BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Tarique Rahman has been barnstorming up and down the country in full campaign mode, and it certainly seems as though the government is in better shape to contest elections than the opposition right now.

In addition to this, the anti-government agitation can only be expected to get stronger in the coming months ahead of the elections, which would serve to further constrict the government's ability to get anything done. A fresh mandate would clear away a lot of the political underbrush and strengthen the hand of the ruling alliance. If they win, of course.

On the other hand, I have also been informed with equal confidence that there are no plans afoot to call early elections, so who knows. My suspicion is that even the ruling alliance does not know for sure, and that this is yet another area of official decision making where confusion and indecision reigns.

Whenever they are held, however, the coming elections are crucial to the direction we will take as a country. The past three years have seen the democratic consensus that had been forged and nurtured through the nineties slowly come undone, and the coming elections will serve to either accelerate or reverse this disturbing trend.

In the past three years, we have seen murderous attacks on the opposition AL, clearly aimed at wiping them out as a political force, we have seen severe harassment and intimidation of a new political party formed by refugees from the BNP, and we have seen strenuous attempts to rig by-elections, one unsuccessfully in Munshiganj and one successfully in the very heart of Dhaka.

The idea that we should settle our differences on the battlefield of a free and fair election seems to have fallen out of fashion with a growing number of influential elements in the country, some within the government, some outside the government, and some of unknown provenance.

But it is imperative that the coming elections be fair and above board. Elections are not the solution to all our ills. We can and do still elect lousy representatives who do not govern us well and see elective office as little more than a means to line their own pockets. But elections remain the sine qua non of our advancement and development as a nation.

For good or ill, elections remain the only means by which we can redress the unsatisfactory economic and political situation in which we find ourselves. As bad as things go, elections permit us to retain the power to change direction. Whatever the problem, be it law and order, be it corruption, be it foreign policy, the only instrumentality available to us, the people, to change things for the better is free and fair elections.

Under the system of elections that we currently have in place, the process is governed by four key officials -- the president, the armed forces chief of staff, the chief election commissioner, and the head of the caretaker government. Much depends on who these four are and the role that they choose to play.

So far, the identity of only one of these individuals in known for certain, and that is the president. The chief of staff is subject to change between now and election day and so it is not possible to say with certainty who will occupy that position when the time comes. The next chief election commissioner who will preside over the upcoming elections will probably be decided in the next month or so.

There is a constitutional formula in place for determining the next head of the caretaker government, but since the opposition is agitating for a new formula to be set up through consensus, and since even under the existing formula, it is not certain who will be the head (the current person so designated might choose to step down to avoid controversy and all sorts of other variables still exist).

Ideally, the four individuals would be four whom everyone can agree on and about whom there is general acceptance. It is essential for the process and for the credibility of any government that is elected that the elections are not only free and fair, but seen to be free and fair, not just by the people, but by the participants as well. Due to the polarised nature of Bangladeshi politics, elections need to be free and fair beyond any shadow of a doubt.

But of course the acceptability of the four key officials is not enough, in and of itself, to ensure that the elections will be acceptable to all.

There are still a number of gaps in our system which need to be plugged and no shortage of problems which need to be resolved before elections are held.

Now is the time for us to think long and hard about how the election commission can be strengthened, and whether and how the existing election laws need to be reformed, in order to ensure that there are no abuses and that it is not possible for the credibility of the election to be compromised.

One thing which needs closer scrutiny is the role of the returning officers, how to ensure their neutrality, and the question of whether there needs to be a permanent election commission secretariat dedicated to holding elections.

There remain questions as to the accuracy of the electoral roll and this is an issue that needs to be settled to the satisfaction of all concerned before the next elections can be considered legitimate.

The role of election monitors in keeping the process honest, reforms such as requiring candidates for office to make public information about their finances and criminal records (if any), and how to keep money and muscle out of the election, are all issues that need to be debated and determined.

The Daily Star together with Prothom Alo and Shujon (Shushashoner Jonno Nagorik) is planning a round-table discussion on this very topic some time in the next month, followed up by town hall meetings the length and breadth of the country to initiate a public discourse on the issue.

The idea is to put the question of elections and election reform on the table for debate and to perhaps help bring about a national consensus on the path forward.

I would urge everyone who cares about the future of the country to follow this debate and to be part of it. Nothing is more important to our continued well-being. This is not an opposition or anti-government platform. This is not a partisan undertaking. We all have a stake in good elections.

If we solve the problem of elections then as a nation we are home free. The rest will follow eventually. One day we will have a functional parliament filled by able legislators of good conscience and ability. It may take years or even decades, but as long as we can ensure fair and free elections, we are on the right path, and it will happen in due time.

Zafar Sobhan is Assistant Editor of The Daily Star.