RMG forecasts
A Mahseen, Dhaka
The rules of the game in the RMG export market have changed since the beginning of this year. The readers of newspapers have been exposed to many angles of analyses, and apprehensions. As an ordinary Bangladeshi citizen, I also speculate about the situation.There are two different worlds the exporters' world, and the importers' world. In between are the political masters controlling the policies, as against the market forces of the direct players in the game. The local citizens have a general grasp of the working conditions in the 3,000 or so garment factories in Bangladesh, as some of their relatives and friends work in this sector, and they hear stories in the drawing rooms. They have also formed certain images about this RMG industry, all of which may not be correct, but there is no harm in providing some feedback. There are many grey areas in our RMG export industry (due to cultural sub-standards). A number of non-technical and not so professional owners and investors are mainly profit-oriented, with a get-rich-quick mentality. This does not mean they do not work hard. The boundary conditions have to be respected, and made transparent to the public. Bangladesh is weak in public transparency (the TI reports are not figment of the imagination!). The working conditions of the garment workers (mostly females) are poor, and the PR (public relations) of BGMEA and associated bodies is poorer. The BGMEA does not reveal both sides of the coin; and fools the public with all sorts of reasonable and unreasonable demands at regular intervals, putting most of the blame on the regulators. This is not fair. The poor working conditions inside the factories are never pointed out. The rented buildings, not designed for working as factories (inside the heart of the cities), are not at all suitable for factories. Who heard of multistoried factories which are prison camps as far as security of life is concerned in case of emergencies (fire, escape routes, etc)? The printed service rules and actual treatment of the workers differ (regular payment of salaries, overtime; medical and other activities, etc). The PR is in the lower key. The importers' world is not that rosy after the abolition of the quota system. The time-lag and the fall-out periods have to be considered. Smaller exporting countries cannot take excess orders just on the basis of cheaper quotations, as reputation, image and promises will come into the picture in the immediate future. Habits and inertia die hard. You do not change horses in mid-stream. We have more than two decades of experience, and we should be wiser on this count, and remove weak points in management and administration. WFA is just a bargaining trick of the importing countries (trade imperialism). It is too expensive to run consumer goods factories in the developed rich countries. Now, even offices are expensive to run; hence outsourcing is becoming more common. The problem with the developing countries is that there is lack of unity at the regional levels, mainly due to political instability and poverty syndromes. If Saarc and Asean put up joint fronts and bargain with the North (or West), we will be the gainers. Divert exports within the regions, and starve the rich countries from essentials supplies (clothing is an essential item, looking at minimum annual purchase quota per individual). There s another disturbing tendency; the artificial rise in the value of the US dollar, the only international trading currency. Without the latter monopoly, the US supremacy as the lone superpower would be gone (not grabbing the energy resources in different parts of the world; which is a secondary issue). Unite, and bargain!
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