"The movement of the US dollar is a key question for the Chinese economy. If the US dollar bottoms out, probably this year, and later starts to rise up quickly, then it would be big trouble for China," said Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley's chief economist for Asia.

If the dollar sinks and then slowly recovers, then high growth in China will continue, he said.

Although the United States and other countries have insisted that China revalue its yuan, currently pegged at 8.28 to the US dollar, the Chinese government should deal with financial reform before moving on to exchange-rate reform, he said.

It would take many years and great effort to clean up the Chinese financial industry, which is saddled with huge bad debts, Xie told the Fiscal Policy Office's forum held last week for executives called "Unlocking the Dragon's Gate".