The production of natural gas starts to decline in every winter as supply pipelines lose efficiency in low temperature, but the crisis may become unbearable this year against a backdrop of significant rise in demand and shortfall in supply.

An alarming depletion of reserve at offshore Sangu field recently further compounded the problems of energy sector. Petrobangla is now supplying maximum 1,310 million cubic feet a day (mmcfd) against a natural gas demand of 1,360mmcfd.

Though the gas production is to go up with the operation of Unocal's Moulavibazar field in March, this fresh 70mmcfd output can not be pumped in to the national grid this year for lack of pipeline from Ashuganj to Elenga.

Petrobangla, which contributes over Tk 2,500 crore to the national exchequer annually, planned to set up the 37km pipeline on urgent basis, but the Tk 150 crore project was delayed by about a year for lack of funds.

Experts at Petrobangla and Power Development Board (PDB) said the gas crisis is going to hit the country hardest in the next summer when demand for power will shoot up to nearly 4,000megawatt, a requirement projection for this year.

The present slump in gas supply has slightly reduced generation of power and the crisis is more felt in domestic supplies in different areas of the capital.

More than 90 percent of 3,400MW power is generated by gas. Both Petrobangla and PDB, however, are puzzled at the demand spiral in winter as requirement for power usually falls in this season.

Most of the industries have turned to captive power generation in the last two years for chronic load-shedding. The industrial belts are presently generating more than 1,000MW gas-fired power, pushing up the demand significantly.

"To make matters worse, the Sangu gas field is showing signs of rapid depletion," said a Petrobangla source. Gas supply from the Sangu field, operated by British company Cairn, came down to 115mmcfd from its 135mmcfd last year.

Cairn is now busy drilling three additional wells at Sangu, spending $47 million. The explorer expects to supply 150mmcfd gas from these three wells, taking the production to 200mmcfd from March.

But a Petrobangla expert rejected the projection. "The six-year-old Sangu field produced over 180mmcfd from three wells in its prime time. Cairn did not do enough homework to ensure the gas field's health and actual reserve," he alleged, opting not to be named.

"We don't think Sangu is capable of producing gas significantly now. Rather, we fear that its production may slump to 90mmcfd by March," he said.

The Feni Gas field, developed by Canadian company Niko, was supplying 20mmcfd gas to the national grid without any contract. But its production has suddenly gone down to 7mmcfd in recent times.

"We never banked on the gas supply from Feni as this is a very small field," said a Petrobangla source. "To make up this shortfall, we will add 20mmcfd gas from our Fenchuganj field by this week."

The solution to the crisis hinges on the planned Ashuganj-Elenga pipeline. Sources said Petrobangla prioritised the Ashuganj-Elenga pipeline two years back but the government delayed the project citing lack of funds.

"We were supposed to begin installation of the pipeline in December and January," said a Petrobangla source.