Reports coming out of Amsterdam, Singapore, New York and Bangkok indicate that climatologists now fear, that in the decades to come, Asia, home to more than half the world's 6.3 billion population, will lurch from one climate extreme to another, with impoverished farmers' battling droughts, floods, disease, food shortages and rising sea levels.

According to predictions, glaciers will melt faster, some Pacific and Indian Ocean islands will have to evacuate or build sea defences, storms will become more intense and insect and water-borne diseases will move into new areas as the world warms. This scenario assumes even more dire proportions given the fact that there will also be rising populations and spiralling demand for food, water and other resources. Environmental degradation like deforestation and pollution are also likely to exacerbate the situation and further magnify the impact of climate change.

Environmentalists are also indicating that rising sea levels will increase misery for millions of Bangladeshis, who live in coastal plains. They are also suggesting that sea water in course of time will inundate fertile rice-growing areas and fresh water aquifers, making some areas uninhabitable.

This unfortunate possibility for Bangladesh will be further compounded by the fact that as sea levels rise, intense cyclones will lead to higher tidal surges. It will also swamp Bangladesh's riverbanks, flooding between 20-40 per cent more land than today. This would mean that the land available for growing rice, vegetables, lentil, onion and mustard crops will be significantly reduced, placing a tremendous pressure of agricultural production within the country.

The seriousness of the situation is best conveyed by a report published by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in the UK. They expect the sea levels to rise between 9cm and 88cm, which according to them will mean intense precipitation, more floods and also more droughts as spill-over effect. In this regard they have made special reference to some islands in the Pacific, the Maldives and Bangladesh. They are claiming that such a situation is expected to permanently inundate up to 15 per cent of Bangladesh and practically drown Maldives, where the highest natural point is under 2.5 metres.

It is this scenario which has prompted them to state that Bangladesh and India need to draw up permanent relocation plans for millions of people.

In addition, experts are also pointing out that rapid melting of glaciers pose a major threat to the Indian Sub-continent, Southeast Asia and parts of China. Their concerns relate to the glacial melt-water during summer months of seven major rivers, including the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra and the Mekong, which begin in the Himalayas and whose run-off is crucial to the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people downstream. They now believe that many of these glaciers are melting quickly and will consequently be unable to act as reservoirs that moderate river flows. As a result, there might be less water in the dry season and more extreme floods during the wet season.

We have already experienced surprising changes in the weather pattern this year. It has been erratic to say the least.

The monsoon floods lingered longer than expected. We also had unusually heavy and sustained rainfall. This year, bursts of rain continued into September and October despite the country having experienced heavy precipitation in July. In fact, the total rainfall broke the existing 50-year record.

This harbinger of climate change has also been noticeable in the recent temperatures recorded in our past two summers and our last winter. We had a severe cold wave in January and an equally unbearable heat wave in May. In fact, the lowest temperature recorded during the cold wave hit a 34 year low of 3.4 degrees Celsius in Rajshahi. Similarly, during last year's heat-wave, the temperature soared to unusual 43.4 degrees Celsius in Satkhira. This summer has also seen some extreme temperatures.

Pinaki Roy, writing in the Daily Star has indicated that such climate change is probably due to 'human activities including industrial processes, fossil fuel combustion and changes in land use, such as deforestation'.

The situation as it stands today is indeed dire. In fact, Sir David King, the well-known British scientist has made an interesting observation. He has described the threat of climate change as being greater than global terrorism.

The seriousness of the issue has also been reflected in Queen Elizabeth II's personal warning. Opening a Conference on global warming in Berlin recently, the Queen expressed her grave concerns over the White House's stance on this issue. This was a rare intervention in world politics for the Queen. She is understood to have asked the British Prime Minister to lobby the United States after observing the alarming impact of Britain's changing weather on her estates at Balmoral Castle, Scotland and Sandringham House, Norfolk. Environmentalists believe that the Queen's views is likely to prove crucial for Blair, as he has promised to make climate change a key issue at the Group of Eight meetings, which he will be presiding over next year.

At the core of the global effort to combat climate change is the Kyoto Protocol, which was established in 1997. It contains legally binding emission targets for 36 industrialised countries. The Protocol also aims to reduce their collective emissions of six key greenhouse gases by at least five per cent by 2008-12, compared with 1990 levels. To enter into force, the Protocol needs to be ratified by 55 parties to the Kyoto Convention, including developed countries whose combined 1990 emissions of carbon dioxide exceed 55 per cent of the group's total.

The last two months has seen sudden progress. On 30 September, Russia announced its decision to ratify the Kyoto Treaty. This was subsequently approved by its Duma on 22 October. This step is considered as significant because Russia accounts for 17 per cent of total emissions from industrialised countries and 5.6 per cent of global emissions. Russia getting on to the bandwagon would bring industrialised emissions covered by the Treaty to 61.6 per cent.

Inclusion of Russia will now also put a great deal of pressure on the US and Australia, not only to sign up to the Protocol but also to enforce their own domestic targets on emission reduction.

All these steps have made the forthcoming UNFCC meeting that much more important. Climate scientists from Bangladesh and the rest of the world need to focus themselves more seriously on the different weak links in various regions. They have to determine how best to avert the sudden, catastrophic collapse of vital ecosystems.

We may, in fact, have less time than we thought to combat global warming. Measurements of carbon dioxide taken from the Mauna Loa Observatory, 12,000 feet up a mountain in Hawaii, suggest that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen sharply and inexplicably in the past two years, prompting fears of runway global warming. It is probably too early to confirm that it is a definite upward trend, but the results have definitely come as an unwelcome surprise to a majority of experts.

Scientists now generally agree that global warming may drastically amplify the power of ozone-destroying chemicals, which linger in the stratosphere for decades. Evidence of the disruptive chemical process is already manifesting itself in the Antarctic. The giant West Antarctic ice sheet might not melt any time soon the ice is up to a kilometre thick but two years ago, a vast chunk, the Larsen B ice-shelf, broke off the eastern side of the Antarctic peninsula and fragmented into icebergs. In just 35 days, about 3,250 square kilometres of ice was lost.

Similarly, the world has watched with anxiety the disruptive effects of E1 Nino. This has led to general warming of the central and Asian Pacific regions and has caused a major shift in weather pattern. It has already had a visible impact on agriculture in Indonesia, the Philippines, south-east Asia, eastern Australia and north-western regions of South America.

The question of climate change and global warming is vital for Bangladesh. Our future as a nation is at stake. The government needs to attach more importance to this issue. The Ministry of Environment in close cooperation and consultation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, should participate actively in the different meetings related to this area and continue to reiterate the need for global reduction of emissions. We may, in this regard, also insist that the Kyoto Parties meet their reduction targets. We should also lobby for Australia and the USA to come on board.

The world had to rise over selfish differences generated from profit motives. President Bush, in his second term, needs to be less of a businessman and more of a statesman. He has to understand that there is danger to the long-term interests of the United States in not being associated with the Kyoto Protocol. He has to appreciate that this far outweighs short-term gains. The signs, as the song said, are blowing in the wind.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador (any response to [email protected])