The Kashmir dispute has not only poisoned the relations between the two but also has a deep impact on security situation in South Asia as a whole. South Asia has been a troubled region since 1947. In that tense and insecure environment, economic progress has been stalled. The statistics show that although South Asia covers only 3.3 per cent of the surface area of the world, 50 per cent of the world's poor live in the region. Many analysts blame primarily the Kashmir dispute as the principal stumbling bloc in achieving economic progress in the same way as the South East Asian nations have succeeded

President Musharraf's new ideas
It may be recalled that the internationalisation of the Kashmir dispute was not made by Pakistan in 1947. It was Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India, who referred to dispute to the UN, despite the opposition of his mentor, Gandhi and Home Minister Ballavbhai Patel. Later, Nehru reportedly regretted that he had allowed the then Governor General Lord Mountbatten to persuade him to make the reference to the UN

In recent days, the President of Pakistan came up with new ideas to break the impasse between his country and India on the Kashmir dispute. It is a bold and brave step for Pakistan. President Musharraf reportedly has offered 3-stage formula to break the stalemate in negotiation.

The past stance was that Pakistan wanted a plebiscite in Kashmir in accordance with the resolution of the UN Security Council, while India considered Kashmir as a part of India and Pakistan an aggressor. President Musharraf reportedly has ditched the holding of a plebiscite as it is not acceptable to India. He also has refused to accept the Line of Control (LoC), as agreed in July 1972 at the Simla Conference between Prime Minster Indira Gandhi and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, as the "permanent border" of the two countries.

He further said: "Change in status could be independent status, condominium which includes joint control, it can be UN mandate. We'll have to sit down with legal experts who can give their opinion on what other status are possible."

What does this 3-stage formula mean?
Let us examine briefly the outline of his proposals. Although details have not been reported, it appears that the Pakistani president wants to begin negotiations on a "clean slate" with no past baggage. This implies that both countries must abandon their stereotyped stance.

What is commonly called Kashmir is properly known as "Jammu and Kashmir." Jammu's inhabitants are overwhelmingly Hindus, while the northern part, known as Kashmir, is predominantly Muslim. There are also many ethnic groups living in Jammu and Kashmir. The territory has been a melting pot since Alexander, the Great, conquered it around 330-327 BC. The Mughal Emperors loved holidaying in Kashmir while they ruled India from 1526 to 1757.

The 3-stage formula begins first with a process in determining the religious and ethnic make-up of the seven regions of Kashmir. It is noted that out of seven, five regions are currently within the Indian-administered Kashmir, while the other two are in the Pakistani-controlled Kashmir. What appears to be in the proposal is that once the religion and ethnicity of the people of the regions are identified, the people belonging to the same religion and ethnic group may live together harmoniously, as it is commonly acknowledged that the same ethnic and religious groups want to unite themselves and live together.

It appears that depending on the religious and ethnic commonalities of people, the borders of the seven regions of Jammu and Kashmir will be re-demarcated. Once the process is complete, demilitarisation will take place in the territory. It implies that there will no regular and para-military forces stationed in Jammu and Kashmir. Only law enforcing agencies such as police will oversee the law and order. Prior to that it is assumed that demilitarisation will first take place on the LoC.

Once the two processes are complete, various options would be considered as to how the territory would be governed. Musharraf has suggested three possibilities: (a) independent status of the territory, (b) condominium, meaning joint control or rule over the territory, and (c) UN mandated territory.

Independent status of Kashmir does not need any explanation. An example of condominium or joint control may be cited. For example, Andorra, sandwiched between Spain and France, over the Pyrenees Mountains, is jointly ruled nominally by both Spain and France. They jointly are recognised as the Heads of State of Andorra and the administration, headed by a Prime Minister, is elected by the people.

UN mandated territory
The third option is suggested that the territory would be placed under a UN mandate. President Wilson conceived the idea of a mandate in governing or administering a territory under international supervision (mandate). During the First World War, the victors conquered the colonies of Turkey and Germany. President Wilson, an idealist, proclaimed that the victors, namely the US, Britain, France and Russia, would not annex the colonies, rather they would be placed under the control of the League of Nations. It was based on the principle that the people within the colonies would be administered by mandated states in a way so that they develop themselves to govern an independent territory at the end.

Under the UN Charter, the concept of mandate has been re-designated as "Trust Territories" in Articles 76 to 79. The charter is very specific about the role of governing the trust territories. It provides, among others, that the administering foreign power is entrusted to promote the political, social, economic, educational advancement of the inhabitants of the trust territories and promoting their progressive development towards independence ( South Africa was the trust territory for South West Africa, presently Namibia, which became an independent nation in 1990).

India's response?
It is most likely that India, before considering the 3-way formula, wants to see cross-border terrorism completely stop from Pakistani side of Kashmir. Although some actions have been adopted in this regard by Pakistan, Indian-administered Kashmir is still subject to violence by militants. India suspects that Islamic militants still are able to easily cross the border to India's territory.

Second, the realignment of seven regions of Jammu and Kashmir may not be palatable to India as it compromises India's secularism. The 1648 Westphalian Treaty created nation-states, abolishing the Holy Roman Empire. Since then, the nation-state system is a fact of political life across the world.

Furthermore, no nation-state is homogeneous in composition of its nationals within its territorial boundary. Statistics seem to indicate that probably not more than 5 per cent of all states in the world have populations that are considered homogeneous. Modern nation-states comprise numerous ethnicities and religions.

Third, the idea of independence of Kashmir seems to be a "no-go" area for India. Kashmir is the only Muslim majority territory within India's secular state. If India surrenders Kashmir, its secular position appears to be seriously compromised.

Fourth, the concept of the UN mandated territory appears to be in the same category of an idea of an independent Kashmir and therefore the idea does not advance progress in negotiations.

Finally, only the joint control of Kashmir remains an idea that needs to be further fleshed out, if in principle it is accepted by India. However India's opposition political parties in parliament are so strong against the Manmohan Singh government that they are likely to oppose tooth and nail to accept any of the suggestions of the president of Pakistan.

Conclusion
President Musharraf , despite the rejection by the powerful Islamist alliance, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) in Pakistan, may be able to see through his proposals, only if India agrees. Although credit must be given to President Musharraf for his bold ideas to resolve the territorial dispute, it seems that they may not cut political ice for India.

One fact is important to note that whether in the current political environment, the Congress-led government will be politically strong enough to sit with Pakistan and consider the 3-stage formula on Kashmir. It is noted that Nehru (a Kashmiri Brahmin) called Kashmir his "spiritual home." Will President Musharraf's ideas be acceptable to Nehru's grand-daughter-in-law, Sonia Gandhi, the Congress Party president and head of its parliamentary party? It is a $64,000 dollar question.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.