With approval ratings of President Bush hitting higher than 70 percent in the polls, widespread apathy prevailed among the Democratic ranks. Until late 2003, Governor Dean was actually viewed by his Democratic peers as more of a sacrificial lamb to take on the Bush juggernaut. The quick victory in Iraq in April 2003 notwithstanding, the Bush administration soon found its post-war plans had not been well thought through, there were not enough troops on the ground to prevent the situation in Iraq from going awry. With casualties mounting daily, the Democrats sensed a political chink in the Bush armour that could be exploited. Governor Dean's early promise evaporated as the Democratic party establishment turned to an "acceptable" candidate among the nine contenders they thought was most electable -- John Kerry, the US Senator from Massachusetts.

Given the incumbent's job approval ratings and his tough stance on "terrorism," it was always going to be an uphill struggle for the Kerry-Edwards ticket. The Democrats are greater in number, but in the conservative southern states, the Democratic faithful tend to vote Republican, the legacy of Ronald Reagan and his so-called "Reagan Democrats." Part of the grand strategy of putting Edwards on the Kerry ticket was to woo the Southern Democrats with one of their own. A self-made millionaire-lawyer from a humble worker background, Edward's appeal is to a wide swath of the blue-collar white working class. While favourite son Edwards may not win either North or South Carolina, the critical state of Ohio, which voted Republican for Bush in 2000, has lost a large number of manufacturing jobs, and is up for grabs. While the electorate has focused on Kerry as opposed to Bush, so has the ruthless dirty tricks department of the Republican party.

Bush campaign manager Karl Rove would be an asset to any organisation in any country. Widely credited with planning the campaign that got Bush Junior elected in 2000, Rove is the "eminence grise" in the Republican shadows who plans grand strategy, and then makes sure the strategy is implemented. Kerry's strong suit was his Vietnam-veteran tag -- he not only volunteered, he was wounded and decorated. In contrast, Bush avoided the draft (and Vietnam) by enrolling in the Texas National Guard as a fighter pilot. Americans love war heroes, but living in a very macho fantasy world, they seem to have lost the distinction between real heroes and make-believe movie ones.

Carefully building Bush's image as a Texan macho personality, even landing as a co-pilot of a fighter aircraft on an aircraft carrier, Rove started a campaign to neutralise Kerry's Vietnam advantage. A group called "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" spent millions of dollars of ads on prime time TV demolishing Kerry's Vietnam record. Even though most of it was outright lies, some of the mud did stick. In the end, instead of repeatedly emphasising the difference between someone who was virtually a draft dodger and himself, a decorated Vietnam vet, Kerry has been only too happy to give Vietnam only a passing mention.

The Democratic convention in Boston gave a boost to the Kerry-Edwards ticket, but it was not the surge that they expected. By the end of August, when the Republic convention in New York came along, the Democratic party campaign had become flat, on the other hand Bush took a commanding lead, opening up a 8-9 percent lead in the polls. Throughout August and September, this gap fluctuated only slightly. While the Iraq situation has gone from bad to bloody and Bush's job approval ratings have dropped considerably, Kerry had not been able to close the gap, particularly because of the concentrated attack by the Republican on his perceived (1) "liberal" US Senate voting record, and (2) frequent change of stance on various issues (flip-flopping).

Almost all neutral observers agree that Kerry won all three debates, the first one at the University of Miami by such a margin it shook the Republicans out of their complacency. Kerry was calm and collected, looking positively presidential, the President himself looked impatient, harassed, and petulant. Kerry scored and scored big, enough to close the gap in the polls. From a one-horse race it became a real contest. In the second debate, Bush came back, but most observers still gave it to Kerry. In the third debate, Bush performed well but it was clearly another outright Kerry win!

All the polls show that Kerry has closed the gap on the very eve of elections, the electorate is almost evenly split, and Kerry might even win the popular vote. However the national popular vote will not dictate the outcome. What matters is the electoral college.

Knowledgeable observers give Bush the clear edge in 21 states having 181 electoral votes while Kerry is leading in 18 states having 189 electoral votes. In 12 states with 168 electoral votes, the race is too close to call. Either one of the candidates has to get at least 90 of those electoral votes to win the election. All said and done, it is the large number of undecided voters who will swing the outcome. A look at the US map state by state will show the blue (Democrat) on both the fringes of the continent enclosing a wide swath of red (Republican) in the middle. The real battleground states are Florida (27 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (27), and Ohio (21). With Pennsylvania leaning towards Kerry, and Florida towards Bush, the fight for the heart and soul of the election will be in Ohio. Whoever wins in Ohio, will win the presidency.

Ikram Sehgal, a former Major of Pakistan Army, is a political analyst and columnist.