Tourism bounces back, oil shadow looms over airlines
AFP, Madrid
Tourism, headed for the canvas in 2003 owing to SARS and the invasion of Iraq, is back on its feet and packing a punch after a stunning comeback this year according to the latest official figures. The lucrative sector enjoyed double digit growth almost across the board from January to August, according to the Madrid-based World Tourism Organization (WTO), which released its barometer report last week in Monaco. "All regions saw a surge in international arrivals," said the report, which was unveiled by WTO Secretary-general Francesco Frangialli. Asia and the Pacific led the way with 37 percent volume growth while North America ended three negative years to record a 12-percent rise, in line with the global average. "Tourism has recovered strongly. The fear factor has clearly faded away," said Frangialli, who saluted the "continuing vigour of emerging markets such as China" as well as renewed strength in more established markets. Yet globalisation, almost by definition, strongly affects tourism, and while the WTO was exuding optimism others saw rainclouds approaching, such as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) which forecast crippling losses for airlines. Frangialli himself alluded to the clouds in question by noting that "the world economy is performing well, notwithstanding concerns about the volatility of oil prices." IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani said losses for global airlines may well exceed a 3.0-4.0 billion dollar forecast this year unless the price of a barrel descends from current record highs above 50 dollars. And while global passenger traffic and cargo volumes have shown double-digit rises this year compared to 2003 -- "an exceptionally bad year" in Bisignani's words -- oil prices hold the key to whether good times can keep on rolling for airlines and hence, the travel industry as a whole. Airline analysts contacted by AFP said they agreed wholeheartedly with Bisignani's assertion that "the bottom line is worsening with the extraordinary price of fuel," particularly in the context of increased demand for long-haul travel. With the net gain in arrivals standing at 41 million for January-August over the previous record year of 2002 (and 58 million more than last year), Espirito Santo analyst Joaquin Garcia told AFP: "Sheer demand could pose a problem" unless the price of oil falls by year's end.
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