Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 130 Sun. October 03, 2004  
   
Business


IMF, WB seek to keep global recovery on track


IMF and World Bank policymakers meeting here Saturday seek to preserve a global recovery that risks losing momentum next year, dragged down by rising energy costs, lackluster activity in Europe and huge deficits in the United States.

Delegates, central bank governors and finance ministers for the most part, are also under pressure to act more decisively to ease the debt burden carried by the world's poorest countries.

The annual two-day meeting of the policy-setting committees of the two institutions comes as the world economy, according to the IMF, is in its best shape in nearly 30 years, with growth this year expected to hit five percent.

"The challenge is to keep the recovery going and to keep it going for as many years as possible," IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said this week.

The IMF sees a slowdown setting in next year as the pace of global expansion slips to 4.3 percent.

Rato said national economies may well have to adjust to higher interest rates along with rising oil prices, which reflect tighter supply capacity, robust demand and uncertainties brought on by fears of terrorist disruption.

The IMF estimates that with each annual increase of five dollars a barrel, 0.3 points is shaved off world growth.

With its surging economy, China has developed a voracious appetite for oil and other commodities and its task now is to engineer a soft landing, an easing in its growth pace that does not cause undue hardship to neighboring countries dependent on the Chinese market as an export outlet.

The IMF has warned that while Chinese authorities have taken steps to tighten credit and investment conditions, the risk of overheating remains.

"The question increasingly is not a hard or soft landing but whether China will land at all," commented IMF research director Raghuram Rajan.

"In its own long-term interest we strongly believe it must land."

But the burden of maintaining world financial stability does not rest with China alone, and Rato in the past several weeks has repeatedly urged the United States to curb its budget and current deficits, which he has said are threats to global economic health.

The US government budget deficit was predicted to have come to a record 422 billion dollars -- 3.6 percent of gross domestic product -- for the fiscal year that ended September 30.