Traditional role of Ayatollahs
Ayatollahs are eminent juristic Islamic scholars, who in the Shi'ia tradition, act as spiritual and in certain situations, as community leaders. Although born in Iran, Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani is the topmost revered Shi'ite leader in Iraq. He is a respected, recluse leader and is one of the only five Grand Ayatollahs among entire Shi'ite community in the world. He possesses impeccable scholarly credentials. His interpretation of Islamic precepts and practices is moderate and he shuns extremism.

Al-Sistani is not an advocate of clerical activism, preferring the traditional "quietist" approach to politics. His philosophy is "don't complain too loudly and don't be violent." Because of this philosophy, Al-Sistani survived the Saddam Hussein regime.

His aides say that Al-Sistani intervenes only as a last resort in crisis for interest of people. During the US invasion, he issued a direction to his followers not to interfere with the US-led troops. At the same, he refused to meet any official of the dissolved American administration in Iraq including the US administrator Paul Bremer.

Al-Sistani's deal
On August 26, this frail Grand Ayatollah, who had a heart-operation in London, flew back to Iraq and issued a direction to his followers to peacefully march to Najaf to save the city. Tens of thousands of his followers complied with his orders.

With his arrival in Najaf, he brokered a peace deal. Najaf is to be declared a "weapons-free-zone." Compensation should be paid to people who have been victims to violence and to destruction of their property. Fair elections should be held and electoral roll should begin soon after proper census. All forces -- US forces and Mehdi militia -- have to withdraw from Najaf and Kufa. Everyone accepted and complied with the terms of the peace deal. Many say that it is not an agreement but an order from the Grand Ayatollah.

Many political analysts believe that the second winner out of the deal is the cleric, Muqtada Al-Sadr. He and his militia are allowed to go free. Al-Sistani provided an escape route for Muqtada Al Sadr and it came at the right moment when US forces were closing in to assault his militia. Although Muqtada Al Sadr surrendered the keys to the Holy Shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf, to the representative of the Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani , his Mehdi militia men melted away with weapons. Furthermore, the Allawi government said that Muqtada Al Sadr and his militia men would not face arrest. This means that the young Al Sadr retained his prestige and honour to his supporters because he did not subject himself either to the US forces or to the un-elected Allawi interim government.

Government's weakness
Although both the Iraqi interim government and the US forces may express relief, they fully realise the limitations of what they can do in such armed resistance. Both of them wanted at heart to avoid the kind of unsatisfactory deal that ended the rebellion in Najaf. Despite tough talking by the Allawi government, it could not either corner or clinch a deal with Muqtada, despite showing its "olive branch" to the young cleric. Iraqi people found the government ineffective and helpless to do anything against Muqtada Al Sadr. Rather the ill-thought actions of the Allawi government to use force catapulted Muqtada from a minor cleric to a powerful figure in Iraq, having large number of supporters among poor urban Shi'ite community in Iraq.

Al-Sistani's influence on future events
By brokering a peace deal, Grand Ayatollah Al Sistani's influence in Iraq is fully assured. His pronouncements will be crucial in coming months for both the US and the interim government. His intervention underscores the fact that the Shi'ite community (60 percent of the Iraqi population) will never be underdogs in the new Iraq. To many, in particular to Sunnis and Kurds, the Ayatollah's role suggests that they may not receive a fair deal in the new constitution of Iraq and that new Iraq will be less secular than the old.

Three crucial developments are to occur towards democracy in terms of the UN Security Council resolution 1546 of June 8 in which the Grand Ayatollah's views will have deep impact on Iraqi people. First is the holding of direct democratic elections to a Transitional National Assembly, by December 31, 2004 and in no case later than January 31, 2005. Second, the Transitional Assembly will have responsibility to form a transitional government (the interim government will be dissolved). Third, the Transitional Assembly will draft a permanent constitution for Iraq, leading to a constitutionally-elected government by December 31, 2005.

Conclusion
Political observers believe that although Muqtada Al Sadr agreed to the truce, it is a mere tactics. The Najaf deal does not cure the "disease" but only relieves temporarily its symptoms. Neither Al Sistani nor the interim government of Iraq can shut Muqtada Al-Sadr permanently out, partly because he is the son of late Grand Ayatollah Sadiq Al Sadr (assassinated by the agents of Saddam Hussein in the 90s) and partly, because he has become the symbol of opposition of foreign occupation of his country.

The crux of the issue is that the anger of Iraqi people, both Sunnis and Shi'ites, prevails against the US military presence (148,000 US troops) in Iraq, coupled with a perception that the US-picked Allawi government is a "puppet" of the US. The Najaf and Falluja uprisings have been stark reminders to the Allawi interim government and the US of the huge hurdles ahead in Iraq. (President Bush finally acknowledged that he had "miscalculated" the post-war condition in Iraq, The New York Times recently reported).

Many think that it is not the last time Muqtada Al Sadr's armed resistance against the US occupation has occurred. The Sadr movement has now a large following in the country and is getting widespread acceptance among the poor, in preference to the more widely accepted Grand Ayatollah Al Sistani.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.