Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 70 Thu. August 05, 2004  
   
Front Page


Oil prices hit new record


Oil prices notched up fresh record highs yesterday, shuddering world financial markets and fanning concern that consistently high prices are denting global economic growth.

Brent crude rose 35 cents to $40.99 a barrel, its highest level since London's International Petroleum Exchange launched trading in Brent futures in 1988, before edging back to $40.86. US crude struck $44.30 a barrel, 15 cents up from Tuesday's settlement and the highest since oil futures were launched on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983.

"The oil price is of course a concern," said Germany's Finance Minister Hans Eichel. "It could slow economic growth."

Oil prices have risen by more than one-third since the end of 2003 on worries that accelerating global demand has left supplies tightly stretched with little leeway for disruption. Some analysts fear that the relentless rise could take prices above $50 a barrel, with more damaging repercussions for the global economy.

Allowing for inflation, prices are near the level hit during the 1973 oil embargo and just over half those during the oil price shock that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Some wider impact has already has already been felt. US consumer spending in June fell at the fastest rate since September 2001, according to US government data released on Tuesday. High oil prices contributed to the fall as consumers cut back on new vehicle purchases.

US stocks were expected to open lower yesterday after Asian stock markets declined on investor fears that oil prices will hurt corporate profits.

However, the evidence of further damage to world economies remains patchy. US consumer confidence climbed last week, and figures from US automakers show vehicle sales in the world's largest energy consumer registered robust gains in July.

But analysts warned that rising prices are set to damage expanding economies which rely on oil imports, such as India, Asia's fourth-largest economy, which imports 70 percent of its crude oil requirements.

Oil's latest boost was triggered on Tuesday when the head of the OPEC producers' cartel said there was no spare oil immediately available to cool red-hot prices.

OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said that Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter, had spare production capacity but could not raise output immediately.

"The oil price is very high, it's crazy. There is no additional supply," Purnomo told reporters in Jakarta.

FEAR FACTOR

Fears of a major glitch in the supply chain at a time when global oil demand is growing at the fastest pace in more than two decades were heightened by attacks on an oil pipeline in Iraq.

Saboteurs on Tuesday blew up an oil pipeline that supplies Iraq's main refinery and feeds in to the main northern export line, itself already closed for two months.

Iraqi exports of about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) were severely disrupted in May and June because of sabotage on key pipelines in the south of the country feeding the main oil terminal Basra.

"OPEC's spare capacity is at a historic low level," said Tony Nunan, the manager at Mitsubishi Corp's international petroleum business.

"Even if something that could disrupt oil exports, like the Iraq war and Venezuela's strike, happens again, OPEC can't boost production immediately to offset it this time."

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, excluding Iraq, lifted output in July to near the highest level in 25 years at 27.57 million bpd as record-high prices enabled members to pump close to full tilt, a Reuters survey showed.

Saudi Arabia, which made up most of the July increase, has said it would produce 9.5 million bpd in August, just one million bpd below the country's full capacity.

Oil traders are also nervous that strong demand is preventing global stocks from building ahead of peak winter demand.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) was due to release its weekly oil stocks report at 10:30am EDT. The data is expected to show declines in national crude and gasoline inventories although distillate stocks are forecast to rise.

The weekly report is closely monitored as a barometer for demand in the world's biggest oil consumer.

Analysts said the oil price hikes threatened to drive up global interest rates and put the brakes on a global economic recovery.

"There is enough oil geographically at the moment, but the supply chain is tight and there is little room for disruption -- hence the concerns over troubles at Russian oil company Yukos," analysts at Standard Chartered said.

Oil prices were now "looking very dangerous" for global financial markets, warned Anais Faraj, global equity strategist at Nomura Securities.

"The key risk now is that central bankers feel obliged to carry on raising rates in the face of an oil shock.