Fait accompli and fettered fate
The causes of floods are known to us -- some are nature-made and some are man-made. Floods are occasional phenomena in this part of the world and since most of our rivers flow from other countries upstream, flood control measures here might mitigate some of the rot, not all. That flood is a fait accompli for Bangladesh is now a well established fact. Therefore, as experts informed us, Bangladesh will have to learn to live with floods. But learning is the least that we tend to live with. As I drive home from Dhaka towards Jahangirnagar University campus and crossing Amin Bazar, I annoyedly notice that the vast areas of water bodies on the left side of the highway being filled in for the construction of housing complexes. It would seem that all that we call "growth" and "development" are taking place there, day and night. Barges are pouring barrels of sands and soils everyday to quickly complete the construction of complexes. The "success stories" of the "invisible hands" becoming visible everyday.

I simply wonder how could a government, worth a feeling for the nation, permit housing hunters encroach upon such natural water bodies that tend to keep floods free of furiousness. The water bodies have been environment friendly. While the present government denied access to a private company for building housing complex in the water bodies of Ashulia, within a span of two years or so, the same government permitted three to four companies to build housing complexes in the places that I mentioned before. Very soon, I suppose, we shall have to pass by multistoried cosy buildings both on the left and the right side of the road denying us of a drop of water to watch but, possibly, forcing us to wait for deepest floods to come. Even proponents of market economics and private sector development would shiver to see such a development.

And throughout Bangladesh, in the name of flood protections, unplanned construction of barrages and embankments are, in fact, inviting floods. Much has have been written on that.

Lessons from 1998
The 1998-flood is termed as the most unprecedented in our history, inflicting heavy tolls on our economy. The then government of Awami League managed the post-flood operations quite well that earned applause from across the world. Undeniably, the then management defied the forecast that millions of people would go hungry and the country would face a famine. It has been proved at that time that all that is needed in the hour of crisis are political commitments and judicious planning.

Realities of 2004
But this time, things do not seem to run that way. From the very beginning, the government made a serious mistake by not taking the forecast for flood seriously. The "mockery" on mounting misery started when some influential members of the cabinet dubbed the devastation as a media campaign to turn the images of the government. The second mistake relates to politicisation of relief operations. Newspaper reports point to the fact that relief materials mostly went as per political patronage rather than painful needs. The government-backed organisations started earning a pie out of the perilous situations. Various social, cultural and religious organisations are being denied their services to the people with mounting miseries.

Everywhere, allegedly, relief materials were far short of the needs. The most important lapse is that the government left out Proshika -- an NGO that contributed most to the alleviation of human miseries during the 1998 -- from its list of NGOs to be entrusted or appealed to come forward with their resources. This also indicates to what extent politics presides over the pains of the poor.

Looking ahead
So far so bad. But the government has to keep an eye on the forecast made by experts. It is expected that another spell of flood might ravage the country in August. That means, given the forecast is right, the aman crop that has to be in the field by that time might be adversely affected.

And till the next boro crop gets home, food security of farmers might be at a stake. The government needs to place the options on the table and start working out the modalities from now. The post-flood rehabilitation programmes need to be cost effective as well as pro-poor so that exchange entitlements are not lost. Again, the 1998-lessons should be borne in mind.

Use of scarce resources
There are many amongst us who like to fry their potatoes from the fire that burnt the houses. The government needs to be careful in assessing the losses due to floods. From our experience in the past, it should not be surprising that the influential parties, especially those with political links, might try to draw the sympathy despite no devastations. The floods should not be an excuse, unless warranted by close scrutiny, for waivers. Resources should go to the marginal and poor farmers; to the cottage and small enterprises and to those who are reeling under the ravages of floods. Remember, crises are opportunities lost for some, but opportunities opened up for others.

Reeling with receding
Experience with past floods tell us that human miseries might mount after the recession of the flood water. Various types of diseases might break out following the lack of safe drinking water and sanitary outlets. Medical teams, both private and public, should remain vigilant on this side. Newspaper reports suggest that the availability of men and medicine are far short of the requirement. We can only expect that the health ministry of the government keeps a close eye on this.

Abdul Bayes is a Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University.