The problem of picking up a Prime Minister of Iraq, due to ascend power on 1 July 2004, is that the person is picked up by the USA and therefore he would not be acceptable to the Iraqi public in general. Secondly if the person is a member of the Governing Council, he is doubly suspect since in the eyes of the Iraqis, he is bracketed with a stooge. The dilemma faced by the US rulers is that she (USA) will continue to have a massive presence in Iraq, even after the so called 'handing over of sovereignty' on 30 June. Right now within the Security Council of the UN the US is wrestling with a new draft resolution through which she would like to entice members like France, who continue to hold out in favour of transfer of real sovereignty to the people of Iraq. The bargaining inside the Security Council is not over yet.

And what do the people of Iraq want? Through their relentless fight against heavy odds, the Iraqis have established that they want the departure of foreign -- troops, lock, stock and barrel. The Iraqi freedom fighters are giving lives daily and in increasing number. They have held at bay the huge coalition forces with all their sophisticated weapons. Coalition forces are paying dearly with their lives and for US President George Bush, the daily arrival of coffins draped in US flag, is not a pretty sight.

At the backdrop of all this manoeuvre there is one overriding consideration for President Bush and that is his REELECTION in November 2004. He really could not care less about anything else. This drama of handing over of sovereignty to the Iraqis that he is trying to enact is to camouflage his plan of reelection. It is by no means certain that he is succeeding in his design. His plan would appear to be that after ousting the 'hated dictator Saddam Hussein', he has given a new lease of life to the Iraqis.

The presence of 150,000, plus US soldiers on the soil of Iraq or in the neighbourhood will falsify this claim of handing over of sovereignty. In order to keep a stranglehold on Iraq, even after their so called withdrawal, the US wishes to keep all the cards. The loyal ally of the US Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain has promised to increase her contribution to the coalition forces. The calculation of Bush is that after 30 June, he would be in a position to appear before his public that he has removed the dictator Saddam and started a process of representative institutions in Iraq. Whether he succeeds in enticing the recalcitrants like France, the forthcoming Security Council vote will show. The truth, however, is that the crack created by President Bush within the Atlantic Alliance is unlikely to be healed anytime soon.

Election campaign for electing a new President of the US in November next has started. The democratic challenger John Kerry has reunited his Democrat party and has put in high gear campaign. From the tone and tenor of the campaign, it would appear that Iraq will occupy centre stage. Presidential candidate John Kerry's message seems to be that President Bush has horribly bungled the entire business and as a Vietnam veteran he has drawn attention to the militarily unprepared adventure failing to take allies on board. Of course as a Senator he had endorsed the Iraq war of President Bush!

Should Bush succeeed in pulling himself out neatly from Iraq after 30 June, his campaign for reelection might lift from the morass in which it seems to have fallen at present. All the information filtering in from Iraq suggest a bigger mess awaiting President Bush after 30 June. He started a terrible misadventure with his unilateral attack on Iraq on the pretext that Saddam was hiding weapons of mass destruction, a pretext which has been totally blown away. It has never been uttered in public, but it almost looks certain that President Bush was 'advised' by his friend Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon to finish Saddam. That would leave Israel as 'the policeman' of US in the Middle East. That the entire game has backfired is clear like daylight. That is how we witness today Sharon seeking help of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to extricate him from the 'hell that is Gaza'!

US President George W. Bush would want even dearly to close the Iraqi chapter on 30 June and concentrate on his reelection. That is unlikely to happen. Iraq will not go away. It seems impossible to predict what the turn of events is going to be in Iraq. At the present showing the reelection of President George W.Bush looks highly uncertain.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.