BNP is a winner to the extent it has successfully proved to the people that they are capable of foiling any extra-parliamentary attempt to dislodge them and bring home to the opposition that they will have to wait for the mandated period. It further reinforces confidence among the rulers, which they never lacked, and send a clear message to others that they mean business. This I am afraid, will generate further arrogance in future and will erode tolerance from our political culture.

Soft and astute handling, with patience and prudence, which are the very essence of parliamentary system, are gradually giving way to arrogance and brutal force. Was it necessary to use so much force against so many just because the Awami League General secretary said that the Government was falling? People will not easily forget the brutal lathi charges and mass arrests in this otherwise festive month of Baishakh. In a way Awami League General Secretary is successful, in pitting his party leaders and workers in particular and innocent public in general against brutal force. Pathetic scenes presented by the press, specially of touching the feet of policemen by helpless people, begging for release, are disgusting to human dignity and an insult to democracy.

Whatever price they have to pay in the future for the excessive use of force, the ruling coalition appears to be in the joyous mood of success. They seem to have forgotten that people do deliver appropriate lesson at an appropriate time. In spite of the passing of April 30th as an eventless episode, public resentment over law and order and price hike persists. If government fails to sooth the anger during monsoon shower, it will not be surprising if people tend to believe that they no longer need this government after the next dry season.

It will be interesting to see how the Awami League proceeds after their aborted programmes. If they now go back to the parliament after long absence it will be a tacit acceptance of the elected government for rest of their tenure. That will be backing out from the 'one point movement' that was aimed at the premature fall of the government. If they continue to be absent and abandon the sixty plus seats in the parliament, the government with their expressed determination and arrogance can hope to hold the by-elections in phases, with huge concentration of security forces in each constituency. Self-exiled from parliament and ejected out of the streets by a combination of coalition political elements and law enforcing agencies, whispering campaign and drawing room politicking will be the only tools left for such a powerful and traditional political party. Press and bar councils are not the main streams of politics. It is a trying time for the Awami League big wigs; wisdom must prevail in their politics. There should be no more harmful makeshift seasonal tactics. They must design long term strategy to regenerate the party for healthier political gains. One can imagine that the Awami morale is at a low ebb now. It had sustained tremendous damages many times from within and outside but never had they been intellectually so aberrant. Is Awami League looking for a rightful place in history or still willing to create new history?

Bangladesh has two major political platforms for healthy discourse (BNP & Awami League) and two minors (Jamaat Islami & JP-Ershad); others are political noises but not countable forces. Fortunately, it is conducive towards healthier political growth in Bangladesh. But our political assets and confidence are repeatedly mismanaged.

April 30th commotion has stolen public interest half way through the launching of B.A. Chowdhury's elite platform. It has clearly misfired. The repressive measures of the government and the political adventure of Jalil, have dashed his hope, if there was any. His only viable place appears now, to retire as a Honb'le retired President of the Republic and make his presence felt as an elderly statesman. As a tradition, presidents do not come back to active politics. While Ershad moves around perpetually in confusing gyration, his hope is in the internal unification of JP factions and coalition with one of the political majors to evade political vagrancy.

At the season's end of political high drama, Jamaat-e-Islami appears to be the only winner. As a fundamentalist political party it should have been on the squeeze from our pro-west major political parties. Jamaat-e-Islami had the farsightedness to see the impending political storm worldwide on Muslim fundamentalist forces, jettison Prof Golum Azam on time, to somewhat free them from internal controversies and create adequate ground for a free ride on the back of the BNP. Maulana Matiur Rahman Nizamee appears to have his sight beyond the level of many, and he is on the lookout for further political gains. Does he still dream of establishing a theological state in Bangladesh? And why should he bother to answer if questions are not raised from appropriate quarters? The sovereign parliament should have raised the question many times by now, recorded the answers for future and allayed any apprehension.

It does not really matter to the people, whoever has won or lost, for in the end they remain perpetual loser for they have neither guarantee of life nor of property and are paying dearly by the day. Internationally, corruption, law and order, press freedom, fundamentalism, just about on every count we are a suspect. How long shall we go on like this?

Brig Gen Jahangir Kabir (Retd) is a defence analyst.