Recently, a joint expert committee has been set up by the Indo-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) to advise on how to proceed further. It seems that this step may slow down, instead of accelerating, the process. Regarding other rivers, no progress worth mentioning seems to have been made. What is needed now is to set a timeframe within which the agreements on the common rivers should be concluded.

Given increasing population and expanding economic activity, the demand for water has been increasing in all the coriparians. Hence, the sharing arrangements for the existing flows of all the rivers must be established on an urgent basis so that each country can conduct their water management planning exercises in the knowledge that so much water is available during the lean season from the transboundary rivers. For Bangladesh, an increased quantum and its assured availability during the lean season in each river, particularly the larger ones, are critically important for useful water management planning.

In the Ganges Treaty, the principles of equity, fair play and no harm to the other party have been enshrined in relation to the development and utilisation of the waters of the Ganges. These principles are also embodied in the Helsinki Rules. Now that these principles have been accepted by the two states in one Treaty, it should be only natural that these are employed and agreements/treaties signed relating to the sharing of the other transboundary rivers. Moreover, Bangladesh and India are historically friendly neighbours, which should ideally help things along. But, all depends on how things click between the governments of the two countries.

The Ganges augmentation
Recognising that the Ganges flows during the dry season are not adequate to meet the requirements of both India and Bangladesh, it was agreed in the 1996 Ganges Treaty (Article VIII of the Ganges Treaty states: "The two governments recognise the need to cooperate with each other in finding a solution to the long term problem of augmenting the flows of the Ganga/Ganges during the dry season.") and also earlier in the 1977 Ganges Agreement that the Governments of India and Bangladesh would take steps to augment the dry season Ganges flows. Different proposals were tabled by the two countries following the 1997 Agreement. India proposed transfer of water from the Brahmaputra to the Ganges above or below Farakka; and Bangladesh proposed construction of seven high dams in Nepal, which could be multipurpose (water flow augmentation, electricity generation, irrigation water.) Neither side agreed to the other's proposal. The issue was taken on board again by including a clause on augmentation in the 1996 Ganges Treaty. But, again, no progress has since been made in this regard.

In the meantime, India and Nepal have been working together to forge bilateral cooperation for the construction of some of the very same high dams in Nepal as were proposed by Bangladesh. One such project is the Sapta Kosi High Dam, on which the detailed project report is reportedly under preparation. The Ganges augmentation through this project is necessarily regional, involving Nepal as well.

The Sapta Kosi high dam is proposed to be located at Barakshetra in Nepal. The Kosi originates in Tibet (China) and its total catchment area is about 62,000 sq. km. and it is endowed with abundant water resources, with an average annual yield of about 50 billion cubic meters. The alternative dam heights under consideration are 239 meters and 269 meters. The displacement issue in all its aspects will be addressed appropriately by necessary pre-planning.

From the point of view of Bangladesh, Sapta Kosi project is very promising. Its location is closest to Bangladesh, only 110 km. from Thakurgaon. Available data suggest that it will augment the dry season Ganges flow by up to 2000 cumec and will also generate between 3000 and 4000 MW of electricity. Reportedly, the project may be in operation in less than a decade and a half from now. By then the demand for water will increase in both the countries, and an equitable sharing of augmented flows will allow availability of larger quantities of water to both the countries. The principles of equity and fair play, enshrined in the Ganges Treaty, demand that Bangladesh's legitimate concerns and claims as a coriparian are taken on board along with those of India and Nepal, as the project is prepared so that the project design incorporates Bangladesh's equitable share in the augmented water flows and the electricity generated (for purchase). Bangladesh should be prepared to share the legitimate costs in relation to the negotiated benefits.

Other potential areas of cooperation
Various studies have identified and analyzed many other areas of potential cooperation between Bang-ladesh and India as well as (GBM) regionally in relation to the transboundary rivers. These include the following important ones.

Inland Navigation: Given major rivers and their distributaries and tributaries criss-crossing the GBM region, inland navigation has a great potential in the region as a mode of transport, by itself and in conjunction with other modes of transport (railways, roads). An agreement already exists between Bangladesh and India for cross-national transportation of Indian goods through the following two routes: (a) Kolkata-Mongla-Chandpur-Chilmari-Dhubri (up the Jamuna); and (b) Kolkata-Chandpur-Bhairab-Zakiganj/Karimganj (up the Meghna). These routes, however, are used rather scarcely and the volume of traffic remains extremely low. The reasons cited for this include siltation, lack of channel depth, and river bank erosion. If it is decided to realise the enormous potential of the navigational system, appropriate steps will need to be taken to address the bottlenecks. The development of the Chittagong and Mongla ports to serve as the hub of regional maritime trade can give a boost to this mode of transportation across Bangladesh and India, and involving Nepal as well.

Nepal can benefit immensely in terms of augmenting its international trade by using a navigational route to the Mongla port in south-west of Bangladesh. But, obviously, Nepal can do so only if India allows Nepal's traffic to move through its territories smoothly.

Catchment management: The rivers in the GBM region are intricately interlinked. The development and management of water in the region may, therefore, be best achieved within a regional cooperative catchment management framework. This will enable a comprehensive planning and programming by the countries involved to address common issues such a combating land and river bank erosion, generation and distribution of hydropower, preservation of aquatic ecosystems, transboundary sediment transport, soil conservation, arsenic contamination, and flood-drought-salinity management. Given the large number of India-Bangladesh trasn-sboundary rivers, a cooperative catchment management approach adopted by the two countries for joint implementation could be of immense benefits to both. It seems advisable to start cooperation in this frameowork by selecting a small or medium river to implement the agreed activities, which will also generate experiences towards improving the framework for action.

Water quality: The quality of water in many transboundary rivers has been deteriorating, particularly so in the downstream. In fact, there are many large and small urban centres along these rivers in both India and Bangladesh, which discharge contaminants into the rivers. The river waters are as a result polluted in both the countries, although pollution is often more acute downstream as polluted waters travel down from upstream. Bangladesh and India can undertake joint activities to improve water quality in the common rivers. If other GBM regional countries, which are all upper riparians to India, are also involved in the task, the results in terms of improving and maintaining water quality could certainly improve further.

It should serve a very useful purpose if the coriparians jointly develop water quality standards and establish water quality monitoring systems to ensure that those standards are achieved and maintained.

Climate change and water regime: Grave concerns have been voiced by several recent studies that climate change as a result of global warming will cause adverse consequences for the water resources in the GBM region. The Interg-overnmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-Third Assessment has highlighted the possible implications of climate change in the region including its water resources through, for example, increased intensity of rainfall and increased drought. However, the complicated and multi-thematic nature of the climate change and its consequences are not properly understood yet.

The sea-level rise, also a result of global warming, may inundate and devastate low-lying coastal areas and impede the drainage of flood waters into the sea. Severe floods may occur more frequently as a result of climate change related intense rainfall on the one hand and slow drainage due to sea-level rise on the other. These floods could be of wider coverage, longer duration, and larger height compared to those experienced in the past. The socio-economic and infrastructural losses could be enormous.

In the area of climate change and its management, Bangladesh and India can benefit a lot by cooperating and pooling resources and expertise committed to the task, to develop feasible adaptation strategies to be employed in each country and jointly by the two countries, as may be appropriate.

Environment for cooperation
There is now arguably a better environment for forging cooperation between Bangladesh and India and beyond in the GBM region as well as SAARC-wide compared to 10-15 years ago. It was then difficult even to talk about cooperation, certainly from the regional perspective but also in bilateral contexts in the region. Beginning slowly around 1990, the Track-II activities (research, discussions, and debates on issues, problems, and prospects by bilateral and regional participants, as the case may be, which generated proposals for cooperation) to promote bilateral and regional cooperation in the GBM region as well as SAARC-wide have substantially expanded. The Indo-Bangladesh Track-II bilateral dialogues are now quite vibrant, involving many individuals from different professions and vocations and different institutions and addressing various subjects, including water development, management, and sharing.

In fact, Track-II has carried out extensive bilateral and regional exercises relating to water sector in the GBM region, identifying many possibilities and proposing many projects and project-ideas for both bilateral (between India and Bangladesh as also between India and Nepal) and wider cooperation in the GBM region that would benefit the participating countries on a win-win basis. But, while Track-II can identify and analyse possibilities and recommend the best options, it's the Track-I's authority and responsibility to take decisions.

Unfortunately, as noted earlier and worth repeating here that, despite an improved environment, except for the Ganges Treaty and the agreement on the use of navigation routes in Bangladesh by India, no water sharing or river development/use related agreement/treaty with respect to any other river has so far been concluded by the governments of Bangladesh and India. However, discussions and negotiations between them have all along been taking place from time to time.

In fact, the window of opportunity that seemed to open up following the signing of the Ganges Treaty in 1996 has been allowed to slip by, although many were expecting that cooperation building between Bangladesh and India would strongly move forward in the aftermath of the treaty. That it did not might have something to do with the changes of government in both the countries; but, regardless of which party(ies) is (are) in power, it stands to reason to argue that there can be no justification for not pursuing national interests through cooperation, as appropriate. Given many win-win cooperation possibilities, as shown by various studies, with respect to the transboundary rivers and more generally in the water sector, it is not at all clear why Bangladesh and India have not been coming together to undertake those activities within a cooperative framework. It seems to be the historical burden of mindsets given to mistrust, prevailing in both the countries among certain political and bureaucratic quarters, that is holding back progress not only in the water sector but also in building cooperation in general between the two countries.

Further complication
Very recently, however, lots of misgivings have arisen in Bangladesh in respect of cooperation-building with India, following the Indian Prime Minister's announcement on 15 August 2003 that the Indian scheme of interlinking rivers would be implemented on an urgent basis. The scheme includes transfer of water from the Ganges, Brah-maputra, and Teesta river systems to the drier areas of India. This, if materialised, will, as perceived in Bangladesh, further reduce the dry season flows of many Indo-Bangladesh transboundary rivers, adversely impacting on the dry season availability of water in the areas dependent on these rivers in both Bangladesh and India. Hence, not only in Bangladesh but also in India, the scheme has come under searching criticisms. Further reductions in the dry season flows will particularly hit Bangladesh, given its downstream location. In the JRC meeting held at end-September 2003, the issue was raised by the Bangladesh delegation. The Indian side explained that the 'scheme' was still a concept only.

In a post-meeting press conference, the leader of the Indian delegation assured Bangladesh that the feasibility reports in respect of the relevant sub-projects (which are obviously those in the GBM basins), when ready, would be shared with Bangladesh. Reportedly, feasibility reports for at least two link sub-projects in the Ganges basin have been completed for sometime now. But these have not yet been shared with Bangladesh as far as the author's knowledge goes. Transparency on the part of India regarding the scheme, as it is developed, in terms of exchange of study results, views, and perspectives with Bangladesh and proceeding on the basis of equity and fair play ensured for Bangladesh would help minimise the misgivings and improve the political and social environment for forging mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.

Concluding remarks
If the existing and emerging water-based cooperative opportunities are not seized and the challenges are not addressed within a fair cooperative framework by Bangladesh and India in earnest, obviously the two countries would continue to suffer self-abnegation. Consequently, the people of the two countries, particularly the large number of poor people among them, will remain deprived of the benefits of cooperation between the two countries. If these potential benefits were harnessed, socio-economic vibrancy could be generated in the areas of focus, which should help the poor living in those areas to break out of their poverty trap.

As between cooperation and non-cooperation then, the choice is obvious. But the action is pending.

Dr. Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad is President, Bangladesh Economic Association (BEA), and Chairman, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP)