Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 4 Num 301 Fri. April 02, 2004  
   
Business


ECB convenes to discuss possible rate cut


The European Central Bank sat down Thursday for its regular monthly meeting to determine the appropriate level of interest rates for the 12-country eurozone.

And although the guardian of the euro is increasingly expected to lower borrowing costs soon to help jump-start the region's stuttering economy, ECB watchers believed a monetary easing would not be on the cards as early as this week.

In a poll of 30 economists by AFP and its financial news subsidiary AFX, 29 said they expected the ECB to hold its main interest rate, the "refi" refinancing rate, at 2.00 percent, where it has been since June 2003.

Only one economist was pencilling in a quarter-point reduction in eurozone borrowing costs this week.

Nevertheless, signs appear to be increasing that the ECB could ease monetary conditions in the 12 countries that share the euro soon in order to give the wheezing economic recovery a much-needed boost.

A whole range of top ECB officials, including President Jean-Claude Trichet, have opened the door to an easing move in recent comments.

Until recently most ECB watchers had believed that the current cycle of rate cuts in the 12 countries that share the euro was actually over. But a growing number of economists are now predicting that the next move in interest rates will be down.

In the AFP poll, 11 of the 30 economists surveyed were counting on an easing move, up from seven out of 30 in the previous poll ahead of the ECB's March 4 interest rate-setting meeting.

The change in thinking has been mirrored within the ECB itself as top officials become increasingly vocal in their concern regarding the ability of the eurozone economy to turn itself around in view of the chronic weakness of domestic demand.