Meanwhile, the government claims that it has uncovered some kind of a death-list with the names of prominent political leaders, intellectuals, journalists and businessmen that the opposition is planning to kill in order to foment trouble. Most ominously, and somewhat unconvincingly, the government warns that the opposition might even kill its own leaders in order to trigger an anti-government backlash. The opposition, for its part, is saying that it is the government that is planning to liquidate its political opponents and shift the blame to the opposition.

Somehow this whole debate seems disturbingly familiar. We have got used to the recriminations and accusations and counter-accusations that are the hallmark of party politics in this country.

The other big political news is the rumblings that we hear about the formation of some kind of a third force to challenge the existing status quo.

The alternative political stream launched by former president Dr. Badruddoza Chowdhury is set to take the shape of a full-fledged political party on the 12th when it will hold a rally in the capital.

Meanwhile, Gano Forum president and former foreign minister Dr. Kamal Hossain convened his Oikya Procheshta with a very successful rally in the capital on March 14. Even though Gano Forum has been in existence for a decade, the convening of the Oikya Prochestha signals that Dr. Kamal is planning to take his political involvement to a new level.

The question on everyone's lips is whether now is the right time for a new political party to rise as an alternative to the BNP and the AL.

Of course, we have many political parties in the country other than the AL and the BNP. The BNP currently heads a four-party alliance and there are any number of parties in opposition. But what people are talking about is a party that can challenge the existing supremacy of the main two parties.

Let us cast a glance over the political landscape to see whether the time is propitious or not. The first thing is to look at the popularity and standing of the two main parties.

The popularity and standing of the two parties has never been lower. Today is a far cry from 1991 when we were emerging from dictatorship and the people believed that democracy under the leadership of either the AL or the BNP was the way to go.

There was a general feeling that the future was bright and there were high hopes for the new government. The BNP had won a popular victory and it was clear that they represented some kind of affirmation of the people's will and were the repository for our political aspirations.

When the AL returned to power in 1996, there was much euphoria on the part of its supporters. The BNP remained popular, retaining over a hundred seats in parliament, and there was no suggestion or sense that people were looking for an alternative.

But this is where the rot began to set in for the AL. Its term in office was dogged by a precipitous decline in the law and order situation that, more than anything else, contributed to the party's defeat at the next election. It was during this time that many of those who had had high hopes for the first AL government in over twenty years became disillusioned and turned off and started to rethink their allegiances.

When the BNP came back to power in 2001, many people thought that it would turn things around. It didn't. Things have gone from bad to worse. The law and order situation is worse than ever, with extortion, murder, rape, and robbery a feature of daily life. On top of this, the government has been unable to check the rise in price of essentials, and corruption has reached unprecedented levels.

Basically, the state we have come to is that people are thoroughly disillusioned by both major parties. Most people who vote for the BNP do so because they are opposed to the AL, not because they have any strong loyalty to the BNP, and vice versa. I would suggest that the number who have any great allegiance or loyalty to either party has diminished sharply in the past decade, and is now lower than the number who do not have strong feelings of support for either one.

For the first time in our nation's brief period of democracy, the people are finally fed up with the existing menu. They might still vote for the BNP or the AL as the lesser of two evils -- but they are not enthusiastic about either.

Now, it is not as though other parties do not exist. The Jamaat has long been a durable force in Bangladeshi politics, but the national mood would have to change radically before the people throw their weight behind them at the polls in considerable numbers. They do control a number of seats in parliament, but this is more due to a smart electoral alliance with the BNP than with the raw number of their supporters.

The Jatiya Party similarly seems unlikely to fit the bill. It was unable to replace the BNP in the voters' affections even in nine years of government, and has now split, and its influence is on the wane. Perhaps it was the corruption of the Ershad years or the lack of democracy, but few people see the JP as potential saviours of the country.

The real wild cards in the pack are Dr. Badruddoza and Dr. Kamal, and everyone is waiting to see what they are going to do next.

Dr. Kamal already has a political party and his Oikya Prochestha has been launched. People are now waiting to see whether it will develop into a political platform or civil society platform and where he plans to take things from here.

The same goes for Dr. Badruddoza. He has the advantage of the support of two (until they resigned their seats to join him) sitting MPs -- his son and Major Abdul Mannan. They will contest their vacated seats shortly in by-elections which will be very closely watched, as the results will give some indication of their viability away from the BNP and also show what level of importance the BNP gives to defeating them.

But back to the question of whether the time is right for a new political force in this country. There are several considerations. The first and most important consideration is whether such a movement would have the support of a sufficient share of the electorate.

For the reasons I have articulated already I believe that it would. People's desires are simple and straightforward. Few want much more from their government than that it keeps them safe and cuts down on corruption and politicisation. Both parties have signally failed to deliver on either of these counts.

The second consideration is finances. The sad truth is that no political movement anywhere in the world is viable in the absence of financial backing. My guess is that the business community cannot be happy with the way things have worked over the last thirteen years.

In fact, it's not a guess. Business leaders are on record expressing their distress at the climate under which they have been forced to operate. The endemic corruption, the extortion, the lack of security, the arbitrariness of justice, the politicisation of the bureaucracy, the constant hartals -- all these make doing business in Bangladesh astonishingly difficult, and the two main political parties' complicity in this state of affairs ensures that the loyalty of the business community to either party is not strong.

Chances are that the more farsighted of our business leaders would be more than willing to subsidise a new political force which would promise to clean up the business environment and provide them with some measure of security.

The third consideration is establishing a brand. It is here that the two doctors have a great advantage -- they both have good name recognition and sterling reputations. If people's primary concerns are crime and corruption, then an unimpeachable reputation for honesty is indispensable.

Their antecedents in the AL and the BNP are another advantage. Although he fell foul of the party's young turks, many stalwart BNP supporters still think highly of Dr. Badruddoza. Similarly, many AL supporters retain a great deal of affection for Dr. Kamal and have not forgotten his service to the country.

The final consideration is organisation and mobilisation. This is the principal problem for any fledgling political force. Any political force need workers and activists to take its message to the people and to mobilise the masses.

That's the X-factor. It's not easy to build up these kinds of organisations. It requires immense energy and discipline and it remains to be seen whether any of those who would challenge the AL and the BNP's supremacy will be able to successfully create such a force.

Now, it is true that both Dr. Kamal and Dr. Badruddoza come with some question marks. Gano Forum has been in existence since the early nineties without making much of an impression, and it remains to be seen whether Dr. Kamal will be able to rise to the occasion and successfully present himself as a realistic alternative to the status quo.

Similarly, commentators have suggested that Dr. Badruddoza's split with the BNP has more to do with his loss of power within the party than principled opposition to the BNP's misrule.

Thus it remains to be seen whether either of them will be able to don the mantle of national leader and spear-head a movement to break the strangle-hold the AL and the BNP have over the political life of the country.

However, one thing that is clear is that the people of Bangladesh are desperate for new leadership. Are either of the two doctors the right men to lead such a movement? Only time will tell. But is the time right for such a movement? In my opinion, it has never been more so.

Zafar Sobhan is an Assistant Editor of The Daily Star.