If the world's sole Superpower wants to "partner" India, India must have arrived!

This claim is dubious. The US's first action after the NDA came to power was to impose sanctions and get the Security Council to condemn the Pokharan-II tests. It took years of servile right-wing policies and a Silicon Valley boom led by Indian-born entrepreneurs to woo America. After 9/11, the US was happy consorting with Pakistan in its "war on terrorism".

Now, Washington has blown a hole through the "partnership" myth by designating Pakistan a "major non-NATO ally" (MNNA). Secretary of State Colin Powell didn't even give Indian leaders an inkling of the US's intention while in New Delhi two days before the announcement.

He surely knew India would have accepted the move if only told about it in advance. But Mr Powell took India for granted!

This disdain contrasts sharply with Washington's attitude towards Britain. Before making Argentina an MNNA, the US consulted Britain, which had gone to war with Argentina.

The US insult to India is similar to the Chinese refusal to tell Mr Vajpayee in 1979 that it was starting a war with Vietnam -- when he was visiting Beijing. He aborted his visit. But today, India won't protest or distance itself from the US.

Nobody can have an equal relationship with an arrogant Superpower. A state that wrecks its own trans-Atlantic alliance over Iraq won't respect a Third World power. You cannot have a close AND an equal relationship with America.

The "partnership" bubble's bursting is of a piece with the unravelling of the BJP's "shining" claims about the economy, social harmony, and more generally, responsible governance.

The BJP is on the defensive. It has little to offer. This time, it's asking for votes not for a larger purpose, but because it craves power.

Mr Advani's rathyatra is getting an embarrassingly poor response. Mr Vajpayee's meetings in Beed and Amroha weren't well-attended. But thousands flock to hear Ms Sonia Gandhi.

It'll be extremely difficult for the BJP to repeat its 1999 performance in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Haryana.

Even in saffron "bastion" Gujarat, the BJP may not repeat 1999, when it won 20 out of 26 seats. Mr Narendra Modi is at odds both with Mr Suresh Mehta, in-charge of the election, and ex-Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel. Gujarat's farmers, led by the RSS-controlled Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, are agitated because of a 150 percent power tariff rise.

The Congress-Nationalist Congress coalition has a good chance of winning in Gujarat. Psephologist Yogendra Yadav forecasts that if there's a 4 percent swing against the BJP, it would win 12 seats and the Congress 14. With an 8 percent swing, the BJP's score would fall to 8 (Congress, 18). But since 1999, there has been a 10 percent-plus anti-BJP swing in all local elections.

The 2002 Assembly elections, held amidst exceptional polarisation following the pogrom, allowed the BJP to offset these losses. That won't happen today.

The BJP's future in Uttar Pradesh is clouded. Mr Kalyan Singh's re-induction hasn't made a difference, beyond the 2 percent Lodh vote. Between the 1999 Lok Sabha and 2002 Assembly elections, the BJP's vote-share fell by 8 percentage-points. This puts it behind the BSP's 23 and the SP's 25.4 percent.

Mr Rahul Gandhi's candidature will further compress the BJP's vote-share. There are signs that the Thakurs are moving from it to the SP. The Muslims are shifting towards the Congress.

Most BJP allies are also likely to suffer serious erosion. The Samata and Trinamool will probably plumb new depths.

However, can the Congress lead a winning coalition? It has played its cards reasonably well so far. It's campaigning far more energetically than in 1999.

The Congress cannot be accused of arrogantly shunning coalitions. It has gone out of its way to build them. Its alliances in Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Andhra and Jharkhand will pay it good dividends.

The Congress doesn't have a big alliance in UP. But that's because Ms Mayawati refused -- under the BJP's blackmailing pressure. Similarly, the Samajwadi Party wasn't willing. But the Congress has roped in smaller parties like the Apna Dal and Momin (weavers') Conference.

Ms Sonia Gandhi's "Jan Sampark Abhiyan" is getting an excellent response. She shows increasing maturity. If the Congress tactfully uses Ms Priyanka Gandhi as a campaigner, it will gain tremendously. It must concentrate on careful candidate selection, focussed campaigning amongst critical groups, and voter mobilisation.

However, the Congress manifesto shows a major weakness. It's strong on pluralism and secularism. It rightly emphasises unemployment, rural development and women's empowerment.

Especially noteworthy is the Employment Guarantee promise: at least 100 days of work per rural household on public programmes every year at the minimum wage. It promises higher public spending on health and education.

However, the document legitimises the BJP's claimed economic "achievements". It promises 8-to-10 percent GDP growth and "selective" privatisation -- as if these were magic remedies. It fails to counter BJP's campaign that India has "progressed" more under its 5 years than under the Congress' 50 years.

To win urban upper-middle class support, the Congress also praises neoliberal policies. It says the middle class is its "proud creation".

This strategy is mistaken. The Congress must project a clear left-of-centre profile as the party of the poor. It paid dearly for doing the opposite during the Narasimha Rao period. The party's recent revival was premised upon a leftward turn and appeal among the poor. It's futile to invest heavily in an upper-middle class that's sold on the BJP.

The Congress must correct this bias and focus its campaign on the working people.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.