Who makes to the White House next?
Brig Gen Jahangir Kabir, ndc, psc (Retd).
Clearly President Bush has violated one of the basic principles of war much to the chagrin of Colin Powell and many like him. That he opened up second front in Iraq before the fall of Taliban government could give any indication of the consolidation of victory over Al-Qaeda networks. Enemies nowhere but everywhere in the mountainous Afghanistan have the making of quick sand for the technology driven Americans. It is also a stark reminder of history that invaders could never feel at ease on those rugged mountains and valleys more known for blood feud but little as a nation state. Today, Karzai is reduced to a high profile prisoner protected by the American servicemen in Kabul. In fact it was unfulfilled desire of getting Bin Laden 'dead or alive' along with his host, Mullah Omar and failure to capitulate Al-Qaeda networks that impelled Bush to go for Saddam at an odd time in an ungullible way. The catastrophe of 9/11 did not only destroy the Twin Towers in New York and part of Pentagon in the capital, it put the myth invincibility syndrome of New World into the thin air. American public backed President Kennedy to the peril of a nuclear war in Cuban crisis to maintain that invincibility. The youthful late Kennedy is so much revered even today due to his success in playing brinkmanship to maintain the myth by expelling the missiles from Cuba. Four decades later, in the unipolar world, when that vital invincible image is shattered by striking the major American icons, people are emotionally rallying around and asking action from another young president occupying the White House. It's not so much confidence in his leadership but the crisis culture that rallies the people behind him. To appease his ego and soothe public opinion he went into Afghanistan in an angry haste. With expected result deceiving in Afghanistan his spin masters went for public relation drama: playing Saddam for Bin Laden. So the dye is caste for Saddam's doom. Even after capitulation, Saddam remains wily like Bin Ladan, and frustratingly so, Iraq too proves close to Afghanistan. No wonder threatening Syria, Iran and others has the making of another spin in case this one too proves heavy thunder and thrust with little delivery. Question is how long American public will wait to satisfy their wounded ego before they start questioning the wisdom of the President. While there is enough time to ponder, there appears to be little time to answer before the presidential election. Clearly signs are uneasy if not ominous for the President. Meanwhile, American economy is performing below capacity. Millions of jobs have been lost. War in Afghanistan and now in Iraq has drained out more than $ 200 billions without immediate gain at sight. Budget deficit is ever widening and President's effort to revitalise the economy by slashing down the corporate taxes is tamed down to $350 billion from proposed $726 billion in a spell of 10 years due to war and other fiscal constraints. Frightened Arab nations put $ 200 billion of liquid investments from American market on Trans Atlantic flight to continental Europe before the Iraq war. All these are weakening the dollar against Euro and other major currencies but trade is not adequately responding to reduce the imbalance. On top of it all a deflationary tendency is now forecast by the Federal Reserve Chief, Greenspan on the fragile economy. It is up to the economic gurus to suggest highway to recovery. President Bush appears neither in a position to insist on the huge tax cut nor arm build up, two of Ronald Reagan's economic mantras, that worked as twin rail of prosperity. It somehow worked in Reagan's time at the cost of huge borrowing and perennial trade deficiencies from which US economy could never fully recover despite visible prosperity. Adding further to the woe President Bush aligns himself with rich and affluent, on the very right track of the Republican right. It is now questionable if the traditional right wing thrust of oil, war and defence production can give facelift to the economy to get back the jobs and balance average American pockets. With over $ 6 trillions of dollars in debt which is sucking more than 6 per cent of GNP in debt servicing, almost a billion dollar trade deficit everyday, there appears to be no miracle waiting for the under performing economy to take off immediately. Ever more challenges faced from continental Europe, Japan, NIC and China, the economists are divided about the validity of traditional conservative approach that worked wonders since the emergence of the USA in the world arena for nearly a century ago. Reaganomics was the last of propped up balloon in that traditional hue which however ate on the very vitals of the American economy. Consumer economics has its own limits too, for you can't infinitely spend more than you earn nor spend before you possibly earn. First war against Iraq that Bush sr. fought was most profitable due to cash and kind doled out by Arab and other nations. But such bank rolling by Arab nations, Japan and other allies in this war is likely to trickle down little due to laissez-faire failure of the war effort. The way contracts for rebuilding Iraq is being dished out to corporate America it appears the incumbent President will have huge financial resources to fuel his campaign one more time. But as the pockets of average Americans have been vastly depleted and their invincibility syndrome not entirely restored, how much the TV commercials and media campaign paid by the incumbent's generous election budget can humour the public and balm their wound is to be observed by the curious minds. The war for presidency is already on. Al Gore the most heavy-weight of the lot, as pollsters predict, is still leaking his wounded pride due to last minute Supreme Court verdict which cost him the White House more than the popular mandate. Never in the history of the USA is a Presidential election so much talked about. With Al Gore all but gone is American public getting ready to part from the traditional ways? Sings are confusing, for nothing has emerged yet; but the undercurrents are felt somewhere. Hilary Clinton is the most acceptable leader among the Democrats after reluctant Al Gore and gaining ground everyday. She has always been an exceedingly smart lawyer and now a senator from her adapted state of New York. She has brilliantly converted the former President Clinton's crisis into an opportunity to make her from First Lady to a potential First Person. She has become a hugely popular person after the way she has handled Clinton affair as the First Lady. Is America ready to offer the Oval Office to a Lady? A decade ago, if Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas, Mr. Unknown, could beat hugely popular incumbent Bush Sr. on the slogan, 'it's the economy, stupid', widely loved Senator Hilary is firmly on the track for a try against the incumbent Jr. Her cultivated reluctance makes her only more formidable. She is the guy (Lady) to observe!
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